A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
